CLIMATE SCIENCE TELLS US THAT URGENT AND DRAMATIC ACTION IS NEEDED TO HAVE ANY CHANCE AT STOPPING IRREVERSIBLE GLOBAL WARMING
Accepting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios provide us with a global carbon budget that will be consumed in 10–20 years at current emissions levels, and entail very significant levels of risk. A commitment to keep at least within this limited budget, and to share the effort of doing so equitably and fairly, is at the heart of the international debate around climate change.
Negotiations around a new climate deal to be agreed in December at COP21 in Paris have not included any clear reference to a global carbon budget as a basis for targets and effort-sharing. Instead, governments have been invited to put forward voluntary pledges in 2015 in the form of ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ (INDCs), and most will have done so by Paris.
A new analysis from a diverse mix of civil society organisations seeks to ascertain whether the Paris Agreement will be ambitious enough and tolerably fair.